Muslim Representation in Bihar Hits Historic Low – AIMIM Gains Ground, Secular Parties Lose Support in Seemanchal
By Mohammed Naseer Giyas
The Bihar results raised a serious question about the long-held social balance. These results exposed weak planning and excess confidence among secular parties. The picture is clear. There is no confusion. The political future of Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav now looks uncertain. The NDA defeated the Mahagathbandhan on every front with a wide margin. The ruling alliance used every political tool and every lever of power to secure victory. The question is why RJD and Congress failed to influence voters? Read this exclusive analysis of Raftaar e Deccan’s founding editor Mohammed Naseer Giyas.
The voter list issue and the transfer of ten thousand rupees to one crore forty lakh women before the poll made a huge difference. There are also deeper reasons behind this heavy defeat. Secular parties need to review these aspects.
RJD made poor choices while selecting candidates. The party avoided alliances with stronger groups. RJD gave sixteen seats and the deputy chief minister offer to the Sahni community. No member of this community won. This community forms two percent of the population. RJD made no major offer for the Muslim community that forms seventeen percent of the population. The party feared that BJP would turn it into a campaign issue. RJD wanted to secure votes from the majority community. Despite this caution, many Hindu groups did not support the Mahagathbandhan.
Several areas that RJD considered strong did not support the party. In the previous election, RJD won seventy-five seats. This time, the party lost thirty of those seats by more than ten thousand votes each. RJD gave a high number of tickets to Yadav candidates. Other groups felt ignored. Muslim voters did not feel valued. Internal divisions inside the Lalu Yadav family also weakened the party. Tejashwi Yadav did not get full support. Senior family members stayed away from the campaign. Voters noticed all of this.
In many seats, JD(U) gained a big advantage over RJD. In 2020, RJD was ahead in these seats. In 2025, JD(U) won them. NDA secured more than forty-six percent of the vote. Many NDA candidates crossed fifty percent.
Congress contested sixty-one seats. Congress lost all seats in the first phase. In the second phase, six Congress candidates won. These were areas with a strong hold of Muslim population. Congress failed to win seats where Hindu voters were in the majority.
AIMIM offered to join the alliance. The party asked for six seats. RJD refused. RJD also poached AIMIM MLAs who won in 2020 and tried to weaken AIMIM in Seemanchal. Despite this, AIMIM still extended a hand for alliance. Tejashwi Yadav rejected the offer and called AIMIM leaders extremists. This harmed RJD.
Some people blame AIMIM for Mahagathbandhan’s defeat. This is false. AIMIM won five seats. Out of these, the party defeated NDA candidates in four seats. Only in Kochadhaman RJD lost, and this was originally an AIMIM seat from 2020.
AIMIM fielded twenty-eight candidates. Five won with margins above twenty thousand. Two stood second. AIMIM spokesperson Adil Hasan lost by only 369 votes. Fourteen candidates stood third. Seven stood fourth. The party received 9,30,504 votes. Even if all these votes were Muslim, it still forms less than twenty percent of Muslim votes polled. This shows that RJD and Congress received around seventy percent of Muslim votes. Despite this support, the alliance suffered a severe defeat. Muslims supported RJD more than Yadavs did.
The most important outcome of this election is the lowest Muslim representation in the history of the Bihar Assembly. Bihar has a Muslim population of 17.7 percent. Only 11 Muslim MLAs won. This is five percent, the lowest since Independence. The direct reason is the low number of tickets given to Muslim candidates by secular parties. In some seats, many Muslim candidates contested against one another. In Balrampur, where Adil Hasan lost by narrow margin, 13 Muslim candidates were in the field. One independent secured more than fifteen thousand votes.
NDA also ignored Muslim representation. JD(U) had given only four tickets to Muslims. The result is a weak political voice for the largest minority group. Five Muslims Candidates from AIMIM won, threer from RJD and two from Congress and one from the JD(U). Without AIMIM, Muslim representation would have been lower because AIMIM defeated four NDA candidates in Muslim-majority seats.
BSP fielded more than two hundred candidates. Only one won, and that too in an RJD stronghold. Prashant Kishor fielded 238 candidates. 236 lost their deposits. His party won no seat. No one questions how BSP and Prashant Kishor affected secular votes. These two groups together secured around 20 lakh votes.
The Bihar results opened new directions for future politics. All 10 Rajya Sabha seats will now go to the NDA. Congress leaders are demanding a detailed review. RJD must fix its internal and organisational issues. Without reforms, the party will not protect the legacy of Lalu Yadav. Many expect a split between Congress and RJD. This will strengthen BJP and JD(U). There is also speculation that BJP will try to replace Nitish Kumar as chief minister with a new plan.